Bitcoin's Bull Score Hits 90 as Spot Demand Shrinks — What Traders Need to Know

Bitcoin's rally is sending mixed signals. The cryptocurrency slipped from an eight-month high near $87,400 to about $83,300 on September 30, 2026 — even as CryptoQuant's Bull Score gauge hit 90 out of 100, approaching a perfect reading.

The Bull Score Paradox

CryptoQuant's Bull Score rolls onchain and market indicators into a single metric. It jumped after Bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week — a break the firm treats as bull market confirmation.

Yet the buying behind that move is already fading. CryptoQuant estimates spot demand has shrunk by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Futures demand is cooling even faster: speculative futures demand growth dropped from about 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29 — a 90% decline in 15 days.

Profit-Taking Signals

Onchain data shows increasing profit-taking and exchange deposits. Recent Bitcoin buyers are holding profits of about 33%. Altcoin deposits reached their highest level since October 2025, with more than 51,000 separate addresses moving tokens to exchanges over seven days.

When holders move coins to exchanges, they are typically preparing to sell. Combined with shrinking spot demand, the data suggests the current rally may be losing momentum even as sentiment indicators flash bullish.

Macro Headwinds

Higher U.S. Treasury yields are adding pressure. The 30-year yield rose to its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year reached 5.25%. Rising yields compete with risk assets like Bitcoin for investor capital.

Despite the headwinds, Bitcoin is on pace for its second-strongest September on record, with roughly 82% of Bitcoin addresses now in profit.

ETF Flows Tell a Different Story

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $66.2 million in net inflows on September 29, extending a nine-session positive streak. BlackRock's IBIT led with $51.1 million. Cumulative ETF flows since launch reached $57.7 billion.

Institutional demand through ETFs and retail/onchain selling pressure are pulling in opposite directions. That tension explains the choppy price action around $83,000.

What Traders Should Watch

The Bull Score at 90 is historically associated with strong markets — but also with late-cycle conditions where further gains become harder to sustain. Key levels to monitor:

• Spot demand trend: continued contraction would confirm the rally is losing steam
• Futures open interest: ETH recently flipped BTC for highest open interest on Hyperliquid
• ETF flow consistency: nine straight inflow days support the bull case; a reversal would be bearish
• Macro yields: sustained high Treasury yields cap risk appetite

Bitcoin at $83,000 is not a crash. It is a market deciding whether the bull run has room to run or needs to consolidate before the next leg.